August 19, 2026:
One immediate effect of the Ukraine war was the expulsion of Russian spies from NATO countries. Most of these spies were diplomats, a practice long used worldwide. In addition, firms with any connection to Russia were blacklisted. Local authorities also cracked down on foreigners' efforts to buy electronic components that could be used in weapons. These were often smuggled out through several countries before reaching Russia.
Since then, many of the Russian espionage operatives have been showing up in Japan. Their work has not gone unnoticed because most of the Russian rockets and missiles used in Ukraine contain some Japanese electronic components. This is because personnel from the secretive Russian 20th Directorate espionage activity operate in Japan under the guise of airline employees. Ukrainian diplomats complain that Japan cannot address this situation.
Japan has a sort of excuse because its legal system isn't designed for counterespionage. Japan also lacks personnel trained to deal with foreign espionage. Since World War II, Japan has been an easy nation for spies to operate in because of inadequate counterintelligence efforts and politicians unwilling to pass laws to deal with the many foreign spies operating in their mindset. As long as the spies caused no problems for the Japanese, they were left alone.
Russia used this passivity to establish links with Japanese trading companies that regularly shipped goods to Russia. Crates marked Commercial Electronics were allowed to go because Japan had been a major manufacturer of such goods for over half a century. No one considered that these electronics could be used in weapons rather than toys or household items. No one considered that rush orders of electronics were flowing to Russia aboard a few Russian government-sponsored freight airlines that specialized in this sort of thing.
Faced with mounting complaints from Ukraine and NATO countries, Japan sought to determine who was doing what and to stop it. That proved difficult because the Russians expected such efforts and had prepared countermeasures. Japan is the largest exporter of dual-use technology for both military and commercial purposes, and it exports these items daily to dozens of countries. Some of these countries are willing to forward some shipments of military-grade electronics to Russia and keep quiet about it.
Some investigations by Japan and NATO nations have uncovered instances of Russian smuggling. The Russians simply ignore the complaints and seek better ways to conceal their activities. Russian exporters regularly deny trading in prohibited military goods, and Japan does not crack down on these exports because they benefit the Japanese economy.
Japan has responded with increased efforts to find and arrest Russian operatives and expel or prosecute them. Japan has also begun sending non-weapon military aid to Ukraine. This means protective vests, helmets, vehicles, and construction equipment. Ukraine has much destroyed or damaged housing that must be repaired or rebuilt. Japan has grown concerned about the rising number of allegations of illegal exports. Japan has strengthened counterintelligence and counter-smuggling operations, recruiting and training hundreds of additional personnel to reduce and eventually eliminate illegal exports to Russia without throttling lucrative legal trade.